Further Analysis on the 2021 October Visa Bulletin

As part of a greater public outreach effort, the State Department has been hosting discussions about the Visa Bulletin with the Chief of the Visa Control section, Charlie Oppenheim, on the State Department’s YouTube Channel. The most recent  “Chats with Charlie” focused on the October Visa Bulletin and provided important announcements and trends for the upcoming year. The following are my takeaways from the September “Chats with Charlie”.

Unused EB-1 Visas Will Boost Visa Numbers Available for EB-2 China and India

EB-1 is likely to remain open for all nationals, including India and China, throughout this year. 

It is also expected that there will be unused EB-1 visas, which will trickle down to both EB-2 China and India, boosting visa numbers available for Chinese and Indian nationals waiting in the EB-2 line.  This will result in forward movement for EB-2 India and China in November and December.  The forward movement for EB-2 China is expected to be significant. 

Upcoming Retrogression of Priority Dates for EB-3 China and India

Charlie warns that retrogression will most likely happen in the EB-3 visa category as early as November of this year. Retrogression will occur because the number of EB-3 India and EB-3 China visa applications exceeds the number of visas available for those categories in FY2022. Charlie said in his chat that he wants to enact a one-time retrogression that significantly decreases new application filing so that forward movement can eventually happen in the future. 

No Movement in Family-based Categories until June 2022

Charlie does not see any movement in the family-based categories until June 2022.  Retrogression also may be possible if Consulates start processing immigrant visas and issuance rates rapidly increase. However, if issuance rates go down, then the dates will continue to advance, but slowly.

Current Processing Trends and Issues

USCIS is now processing an average of 7,000 to 8,000 adjustment of status applications per week (!). So, we finally are starting to see green cards approved from the applications filed last year in October.  

The large number of employment-based visas available means more officers are needed to adjudicate these petitions.  There currently is a shortage of experienced officers because they are training new hires, so the delays in processing employment-based green card applications will likely continue in the near future. 

We are continuing to monitor the situation and will update you as we have more information.  

This alert is for informational purposes only.  Please contact me if you would like to discuss this development further.